This is a subject that's taxed my mind for some time now. Inevitably, the first question is, define a war.
Most people think of a war in terms of World Wars, or "Total War" - big military engagements, civilian population fully involved. Clearly that's not the case right now. However, we are involved in war, and it has started to impact on the UK mainland.
The big question is, will it escalate, and if so, to what extent.
A lot depends on what the USA do in the future. Right now it seems the neo-cons star is fading. Bush isn't doing too well in opinion polls. The population is seeing a lot of pain for no gain, and the "war on terror" has stagnated. (It was always going to be so. Bush isn't serious about combating terrorism.) So, for a while we'll see a bit of a lull. Sure, people will continue dying horribly, and terror attacks will still occur, but it will be at a relatively low level. We may even see the USA withdrawing from places like Afghanistan, though I think that's a very remote possibility. (It's far too important strategically.)
Which brings me neatly onto the real issue. Oil...
We all know it's running out, and that the huge emerging economies such as India and China will need vast quantities of the stuff. We also know that people and governments have been burying their heads in the sand, refusing to acknowledge the problem. There is no adequate substitute for it in sight. Even massive investment and building in nuclear power looks as though it'll be too late.
So where does that leave us? It means billions of people will finds themselves without the basics - water, food, shelter, medication. In the States, people will believe in their superiority (morally, economically and militarily), and will seek to protect their position. The gap between the rich and the poor will widen to the point where revolution becomes inevitable.
(Previously this model would only have applied to individual countries. It's measurable. If the gap's too big, unrest inevitably follows. However, the old model no longer applies. The world is shrinking, and the global economy rules.)
It's going to take a seismic shift in the way the world is run to make enough difference to avoid the greatest tragedies occuring, and the problem for me is that I don't see *any* (let alone those in the States) world leader capable of making it happen.
So, in my view, we're in for an extended period of great unrest. War (which will be unlike any previous conflict), will be a permanent feature of our lives. Freedom will be a long forgotten dream, and shortages of basic essentials the order of the day. Everybody will be directly affected, one way or another, because everyone will be involved.
Which all leaves me feeling pretty depressed. I don't see any other scenario as likely as the one I've just described. If we're *very* lucky it'll all sort itself out in the end, but in the meantime the suffering and death could be on a scale never seen before, and if we don't get a grip on environmental issues it's going to be even worse.
We're mobilising awareness far too late, and far too little. The world's never seen any issues as directly threatening as these. We're woefully inadequately equiped to deal with them. It's up to everyone on the planet to do whatever we can about it, but I fear even that won't be enough...
Hugs,
Barclay (miserable, doom preaching old git ;-) )