We could be going back to the eighties......Oh No

mickeyblueiiiis

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Interesting debate on Radio 2, Jeremy Vine

Bushes Innaugaration speech with his veiled warnings about threats. It is a well known fact that North Korea have a massive nulear warhead arsenal. The threat is currently described between 8 and 9 or maybe a 9 1/2 in about 1 Bush time.

I happen to know a little bit about N Korea. The place is a fortress, the underground system is 300m below ground. Thats the old blitz spirit, it can supposedly withstand a direct hit from ICBM. Every motorway can double up as an airfield that can land just about anything and the lights are omni/uni directional so they can/cant be seen from the air.

China is starting to be more than a litlle afraid...they've got good reason to be.

And Bush now thinks that he's going to go on some madcap crusade to remove thier leaders. In the words of Harry Hill, wots the chances of that happenning?

I personally dont want to go back to that 80's paranoia of 4 minute warnings and fallout crap.

Be afraid.......Be very afraid

In exercising my freedom of speech....does anyone have any thoughts?
 

Technognome

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It is a well known fact that North Korea have a massive nulear warhead arsenal.

No it's not !

Estimates vary of both the amount of plutonium in North Korea's possession and number of nuclear weapons that could be manufactured from the material. South Korean, Japanese, and Russian intelligence estimates of the amount of plutonium separated, for example, are reported to be higher -- 7 to 22 kilograms, 16 to 24 kilograms, and 20 kilograms, respectively -- than the reported US estimate of about 12 kilograms. At least two of the estimates are said to be based on the assumption that North Korea removed fuel rods from the 5-MW(e) reactor and subsequently reprocessed the fuel during slowdowns in the reactor's operations in 1990 and 1991. The variations in the estimates about the number of weapons that could be produced from the material depend on a variety of factors, including assumptions about North Korea's reprocessing capabilities -- advanced technology yields more material -- and the amount of plutonium it takes to make a nuclear weapon. Until January 1994, the Department of Energy (DOE) estimated that 8 kilograms would be needed to make a small nuclear weapon. Thus, the United States' estimate of 12 kilograms could result in one to two bombs. In January 1994, however, DOE reduced the estimate of the amount of plutonium needed to 4 kilograms--enough to make up to three bombs if the US estimate is used and up to six bombs if the other estimates are used.
LINK

Also;

But in December 2002, it restarted its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and forced two UN nuclear monitors to leave the country.

If the reactor were fully operational, some analysts believe it could produce enough plutonium to build approximately one weapon per year.

America's CIA says a separate, enriched uranium programme could be producing "two or more" bombs each year by the middle of this decade.

How many weapons does North Korea already possess?

This is very hard to say without full IAEA inspections. Experts believe that North Korea may have extracted sufficient plutonium for a small number of bombs.

US officials have put the number at "one or two".
LINK

By any stretch of the imagination that is not a 'massive nulear warhead arsenal'.

Maybe you were being sarcastic?

PHLUR :sun:
 

Orgone-ization

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id say that israel poses a far far greater conventional nuclear threat , they actually do have shed loads of nukes and wont admit to it in the slightest. what would make more sense for north korea is if they had gone and gotten themselfs some sunburn anti ship, mach 2, ballistic missiles, last time i looked america went everywhere with a carrier group, unfortunately they have no defences against this type fo anti ship missile and it can carry a 200 kilotonne thermonuclear warhead. id say this puts an interesting slant on any large scale future war.

then again i hole the firm beleif that wars are made to occur, like an elite power cabal playing chess with real countries if you like. so in that was i am reasonalbly worried about twhat could go donw in both n, korea area and israel pallastine, all very sketchy at the minute.
anyone remeber the 2 trains colliding in n,korea one carring gas and the other carrieing petrol or somthing ludicrous, wasnt the case, was a fuel air explosion, cheap mans nuke, check it out on t'internet
 

grokit23

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Orgone-ization said:
anyone remeber the 2 trains colliding in n,korea one carring gas and the other carrieing petrol or somthing ludicrous, wasnt the case, was a fuel air explosion, cheap mans nuke, check it out on t'internet

I remember this being reported on but I don't see any evidence of it having been a fuel air explosion, got any proof?

Plus if it was being bombed by somebody else do you think Kim Jong Il would not be trumpeting about it to the rest of the world as justification for his own policies?
 
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dave arc-i

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It was finally presented in the media as a 'reservoir' construction project and the N Koreans had blown an entire mountain up - still sounds like either a nuke test (with a higher yield than expectd) or (unlikely) accident to me
 

grokit23

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dave arc-i said:
It was finally presented in the media as a 'reservoir' construction project and the N Koreans had blown an entire mountain up - still sounds like either a nuke test (with a higher yield than expectd) or (unlikely) accident to me

Dave are we on about the same thing here?

I think the incident that was being discussed was the 'train crash' in N Korea where the news reports showed aerial photos of a goods yard at a railway depot where the blast had flattened half the local shanty town etc.

I'll try to find some news reports of it...
 

grokit23

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Is this the incident that you're on about?
click

click

or click here

Can't believe I've actually posted a link to a Fox news website, but it does serve to illustrate how little the North Koreans tell their own public and anybody else. Also shows how the little we know of what happens there is often confused and garbled to say the least as well.

Sure you can't argue much about the aggressive stance, I think most of us have seen those huge Smash the Imperialist USA posters that they like to display in public places, but should we let Bush demonise another country with little real chance of doing much to us?

He's at it again with Iran at the moment, hey suddenly we're meant to be scared of their nuclear threat as well, especially because they've now got the religious nut-jobs back in power. Conveniently ignoring that for a good few years Iran was the shining example of tolerance and liberalism building again in the middle east, though funnily that all ended when the people got so scared by the American actions in their neighbourhoods that they became frightened enough to actually vote the clerics back into power. Can anybody see a parallel here? Religious nutjobs gaining and maintaining power via heightened sense of fear in the general population, America/Iran two sides of the same coin.

Sorry too long off topic I fear....
 
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dave arc-i

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grokit23 said:
dave arc-i said:
It was finally presented in the media as a 'reservoir' construction project and the N Koreans had blown an entire mountain up - still sounds like either a nuke test (with a higher yield than expectd) or (unlikely) accident to me

Dave are we on about the same thing here?

I think the incident that was being discussed was the 'train crash' in N Korea where the news reports showed aerial photos of a goods yard at a railway depot where the blast had flattened half the local shanty town etc.

I'll try to find some news reports of it...

Errrr no - the incident i am on about came some months after the rail accident and made international news as the explosive removal of the mountain led many agencies to conclude that is was some form of nuke test - me Im a sceptic - ffs how much convential explosive would have been required to do a job like that if it wasn't - teach me not to read every post fully then but still I feel a relevant contribution!

wish i was clever like you though and i could put my links in as clickety click things instead of the 20th century version!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3650702.stm
 

grokit23

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I'd forgotten about that incident, what would you call it? "The case of the vanishing mountain" springs to mind but sounds a bit famous five'ish.

Really quite relevant though anyway Dave as it does illustrate the levels of paranoia and distrust in the area and also the complete lack of communication going on between N Korea and the rest of the world. It's a wierd one for me to look at because my normal response is to go that America is trying to demonise the evil (insert country of choice) for their own ends and yet in this case the N Koreans do nothing to help themselves in the eyes of the international community. Instead they shut themselves off completely and threaten and bluster and fail to tell their neighbours when they're going to do something as big as this in the way of rearranging the local couyntryside.

I think we'd have heard something more of it by now though if our ambassador has been to visit the mountain and was now dying of radiation sickness. Can't imagine that we'd have let him go visit without some kind of geiger counter etc...
 
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dave arc-i

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grokit23 said:
I'd forgotten about that incident, what would you call it? "The case of the vanishing mountain" springs to mind but sounds a bit famous five'ish.

If I were a hippy then I would probably describe it as environmentally unsound but if I were a bit blokeish then i would be thinking WOW I wanna see the video of them doing it.

But I probably fall somewhere between the two extremes - did you see the video from Pakistan from i think the most recent underground test they did? It was a mountain too - only difference was the Pakistani weapon didnt demolish the mountain. Now lets do the math Koreans demolish mountain with conventional explosives pakistanis Nuke doesnt. I find it difficulkt to make those two things add up.

OK you can argue the Koreans MEANT to blow-up thier mountain when obviously that was the last the thing he Pakistanis wanted but I still find the Korean claim a tad suspect.

Slighty off topic Pakistan threatens India with a Nuke strike - Indians go "cool we are guaranteed reincarnation our creed says so". Pakistanis go "yes but we are guaranteed adulation in paradise - our creed says so." Ther indians reply "Yes of course - but you are still dead!"

Bit difficult to threaten them with death when the belief of re-incarnation is so strongly held. In the words of the philsopher Homer......... doh!
 

grokit23

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dave arc-i said:
grokit23 said:
I'd forgotten about that incident, what would you call it? "The case of the vanishing mountain" springs to mind but sounds a bit famous five'ish.

If I were a hippy then I would probably describe it as environmentally unsound but if I were a bit blokeish then i would be thinking WOW I wanna see the video of them doing it.

I know the feeling, there's a certain side of me can't help but watch things that go bang in a spectacular fashion and go "whoah! that's so cool!"

dave arc-i said:
But I probably fall somewhere between the two extremes - did you see the video from Pakistan from i think the most recent underground test they did? It was a mountain too - only difference was the Pakistani weapon didnt demolish the mountain. Now lets do the math Koreans demolish mountain with conventional explosives pakistanis Nuke doesnt. I find it difficulkt to make those two things add up.

No I heard about it, but never saw any of the video. Would love to for the very same reasons given above.

dave arc-i said:
OK you can argue the Koreans MEANT to blow-up thier mountain when obviously that was the last the thing he Pakistanis wanted but I still find the Korean claim a tad suspect.

I find any claim made by the N Koreans to be a tad suspect. Sad but true... :no:

dave arc-i said:
Slighty off topic Pakistan threatens India with a Nuke strike - Indians go "cool we are guaranteed reincarnation our creed says so". Pakistanis go "yes but we are guaranteed adulation in paradise - our creed says so." Ther indians reply "Yes of course - but you are still dead!"

Bit difficult to threaten them with death when the belief of re-incarnation is so strongly held. In the words of the philsopher Homer......... doh!

:lol1: :lol1:

If you really want to follow that through though, then Pakistan would be in a better position at the end of it all. Pakistan would be irradiated and uninhabitable, but at least the people would be in their own heaven. Wheras the Indians would all be reincarnated, but then have to live out their lives in whatever post-nuclear wasteland was left of India. :P
 
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dave arc-i

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Ok but to take it then to its illogical conclusion India eventually becomes inhabitable agian - indians reincarnated indefinetly repopulate the sub-continent - Paskistanis meanwhile still being waited on by hand maidens in paradise - No more Kashmir issue - result!!!
 

grokit23

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:lol: fantastic

Lets just hope it never happens, I'd prefer not to have to check my charas with a geiger counter before sticking it in the chillum... :Wink3:

Back to the on-topic side of things -->

That whole 4 minute warning stuff was a right pain in the arse, but it did get me quite used to being ready to pack up and go at any time. Any forces brats from the '70s and '80s will probably remember the same sort of thing I imagine, we used to always have to have a travel bag packed and ready with our passports too, so that we could be evacuated at a moments notice. After years of that and having to travel by myself frequently as a child I now think nowt of getting on a plane to fly anywhere with no notice whatsoever and no real idea of what I'm going to do when I get there. It made me realise that planes are just big fancy flying buses and you shouldn't be too worried about going anywhere really.

:Smile3:
 
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dave arc-i

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Yeah - I still keep all my electronics wrapped in aluminium foil in case of a sneak upper atmosphere EMP attack by some bugger - have started taking it off my head recently though.

On a more serious note as a seven year old I can remember my parents concerns at the time of the Cuban missle crisis - made for a very strange going to bed that night - I think they must have REALLY been worried we might not be in the morning.
 

grokit23

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dave arc-i said:
Yeah - I still keep all my electronics wrapped in aluminium foil in case of a sneak upper atmosphere EMP attack by some bugger - have started taking it off my head recently though.

:lol:

Dave you've been killing your braincells since the year I was born and now it turns out that you've been wrapping your head in tin-foil for longer than I have too...

You're so my hero! :lol1:
 
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